Jeera futures trading predicted to continue downtrend this weeks time on rising arrivals from the fresh plants along with adequate supply in the spot markets.
Carryover shares of jeera is predicted to be around 9-11 lakh luggage as when in comparison to 4-6 lakh luggage in the last season.
Production of jeera in 2011-12 is predicted to be around 35 lakh luggage as when in comparison to 29 lakh luggage in 2010-11.
Global soybean prices increased on the back of lower US shares and popular especially from Chinese suppliers.
According to the investors, conclusion shares is predicted to be around 260 thousand bushels, down from 274 thousand approximated in Feb. While, world conclusion shares are required to drop to 56.75 thousand plenty from 60.18 thousand last month.
Meanwhile, U.S. soy bean exports increased the other day to the second highest in a season period due to increased Chinese need amongst concerns South American plants deficits. Brazil's soybean result is predicted to be around 68 thousand plenty for 2011-12, down 0.6% due to plants damage on yeast disease and dry weather.
Spot soy oil traded higher Monday on bullish cues from BMD CPO futures. Domestic futures markets closed yesterday for Mahashivratri festival. Refined soy oil in benchmark Indore market quoted up Rs 1 at Rs 674 per 10 kg and in Mumbai it quoted higher Rs 6 at Rs 674 per 10 kg.
Crude soy oil in Indore market traded up Rs 4 at Rs 644 per 10 kg, while in Mumbai it quoted up Rs 5 at Rs 6487per 10 kg. Mustard oil in Mumbai quoted higher Rs 7 at Rs 729 per 10 kg, while refined sunflower quoted at Rs 689 per 10 kg. Cardamom and pepper in India's commodity exchange traded higher for the week on higher demand from both domestic as well as international while, turmeric fell 10.10% during the period. Global Pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 7.1% to 3.20 lakh tons as compared to 2.96 lakh tonnes in 2011 with sharp rise of 23% in Indonesia's output and in Vietnam by 10%. Outlook for Jeera is sideways to up for the day. Pepper futures to trade higher for the day. Guar Complex is expected to trade higher for the day. Outlook for Chana is down for the day. Outlook for Soybean is seen down for the day. CPO is expected to trade lower.
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Gold
For this week, Gold may remain in the ranges of 27400 to 28150 in MCX. Fundamentally, Gold movement is mostly as per global cues and the Euro zone crisis is not expected to end in the near future while, on the other hand, the U.S. economy seems to be in a growth phase. Upcoming data like consumer credit and wholesale inventories are expected to be lower than the previous data and lower unemployment claims are expected, which is looking good for the U.S. economy. All these factors may depreciate Gold prices in this week.
From the Gold chart, we can see that the prices of Gold are trading below 50-day moving average and consolidating in between the 20-50 days moving averages. The directional movement in the chart also indicates the bearish trend for coming days. Breaching of 27400 levels may result in a sharp rally till 26000. Technically, the major resistance level is 28150. Sustainability above 28000 may show the upper level 28400 adequately.
In COMEX, Gold is hovering around $1600 after testing a lower level of $1520. Its major support level is $1500 and resistance level is $1650. Buying near $1500 in International level would be beneficial for long term view. At this level Gold is looking very optimistic for buyers.
Weekly Support / Resistance
Commodity
R2
R1
PIVOT
S1
S2
Gold
28600
28150
27700
26500
25800
Silver
Silver is expected to be highly volatile for this week amid euro zone crisis and positive data for U.S. economy. It is expected to test 50,000 levels in this week. It is following the same pattern as Gold.
Technically, Silver is expected to be bearish for the week. The Silver prices are trending below 50 & 20 days moving averages. Directional Movement in the chart is also showing the bearish trend for the coming days. Sustainability above 54000 may show some upper level up to 56000 as Silver is trending in a very broad range. In MCX its initial support level is 48500. Breaching of this level may result in a rally till 46000. In COMEX, Silver is hovering around $28 and ranging in-between $26 to $30. Breaching of $26 level may show a sharp rally till $24. Initial resistance level is $30 and major support level is $32. In COMEX, $26 is good buying level for long term investors.
Weekly Support / Resistance
Commodity
R2
R1
PIVOT
S1
S2
Silver
56000
54500
52000
48500
46000
Crude Oil
For the week, Crude oil prices are expected to remain range bound as America has shown a huge stock of oil and the America–Iran conflict is expected to resolve. Crude is expected to remain in the ranges of 5250-5500 in MCX.
Technically, crude is looking range bound for the week as the Stochastic is showing an overbought zone and 20-day moving average is turning down. Breaching of 5300 levels may show a sharp rally till 5100. Sustainability above 5400 may show short term up trend.
In NYMEX, Crude is ranging in-between $98 to $103. It is hovering near $101. The resistance level in NYMEX is $104 and support level is $98.
Weekly Support / Resistance
Commodity
R2
R1
PIVOT
S1
S2
Crude
5650
5490
5300
5100
4890
Copper
This week, Copper is expected to be bearish on account of strengthening in Dollar index against euro. Upcoming data for Dollar is also expected to be positive. Indonesia’s Copper mining strike has halted, so it will impact Copper prices. Overall, Copper is not looking bullish for the coming days; its range in MCX is 415-490. Prices may correct this week. A break above 408 may show short term up trend.
Technically, Copper is trending below 13-day Exponential moving average and hovering around 20-day Simple moving average. Its directional movement is also showing the downtrend. Copper is showing the initial resistance of 409, Major resistance level is 416. Sustainability below 400 may correct in the ranges of 392-390. For the week, sell on rise is recommended.
According to our sharetips expert,Gold futures surged in mid U.S. trade Tuesday on a weaker dollar and euro zone optimism.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery traded at USD1632.75 a troy ounce during mid U.S. trade surging 1.53%.
It earlier hit a high of USD1637.15, the highest since December 14th.
Our sharetipsexpert say's Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1606.05 and technical resistance exists at USD1645.65, the high of December 14th.
Weakness in the U.S. dollar usually works to lift precious metal prices. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, gave back 0.21% to trade at 81.14.
A weaker U.S. dollar normally lifts gold prices as it increases the metals appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar priced commodities less expensive for holders of other currencies.
Gold broke above its 200 day moving average triggering technical buying by trend following funds adding to the bullish environment.
Rating agency Fitch made it clear that it will not downgrade France this year, but warned that an Italian downgrade is pending.
For much of the last year, investor's typical reaction to bad news from Europe was to buy gold, as its boosts safe haven appeal of the precious metal, but that relationship has unraveled recently.
Instead, gold futures have moved largely in line with other commodities and risk assets over the past month, with investors preferring the relative safety of the U.S. dollar.
Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for March soared 3.88% to trade at USD29.90 a troy ounce, while copper for March delivery moved higher by 2.74% to trade at USD3.51 a pound.
According to our sharetipsexpert ,Natural gas prices rallied sharply on Friday, rebounding from a 28-month low, as forecasts for colder-than-normal boosted near-term demand expectations for the heating fuel.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in February settled at USD3.074 per million British thermal units by close of trade on Friday, climbing 3.5% over the week, the first weekly gain since December.
Natural gas prices surged nearly 3.15% on Friday after the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said a long-term weather pattern that has kept milder air in the eastern U.S. showed indications of breaking up, signaling colder weather could be ahead.
That pattern, known as the Arctic Oscillation, may change to a neutral or negative phase in coming weeks, according to Jon Gottschalk, head of forecast operations for the U.S. Climate Prediction Center.
When the oscillation moves to a negative phase, colder air is able to move farther south from the Arctic and linger longer over parts of the U.S.
Prices found further support after the Commodity Weather Group said temperatures across most parts of the U.S. Northeast will fall by at least 3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.7 Celsius) below normal from January 16 to January 20.
Industry weather group MDA EarthSat offered a similar outlook, saying the U.S. Midwest, South and East Coast should get a "significant cold push of air" next week, accompanied by several days of below-average temperatures.
Natural gas futures have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks. Below-normal winter temperatures increase the need for gas-fired electricity to heat homes, boosting demand for natural gas.
Prices plunged 3.8% to a 28-monthlow on Thursday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. fell by 76 billion cubic feet in the preceding week, falling short of expectations for a decline of 78 billion cubic feet.
The drawdown was also significantly lower than the 135 billion cubic feet withdrawn in the same week a year earlier. The five-year average change for the week is a decline of 106 billion cubic feet, according to U.S. Energy Department data.
Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.472 trillion cubic feet as of last week, up 11.4% compared to the same week a year earlier.
Gas futures typically climb during the winter months, as temperatures fall and demand for heating fueled by natural gas rises.
But mild winter weather coupled with high inventory and production levels in the U.S. have kept prices depressed near 28-month lows in recent weeks.
The front-month gas contract settled below the psychologically-key USD3.00-threshold earlier in the week, the first time it has done so in January in nearly a decade.
Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for February delivery traded at USD101.90 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, climbing 2.95% on the week, while heating oil for February delivery rallied 5.85% over the week to settle at USD3.091 per gallon by close of trade Friday.
According to our sharetips expert, Natural gas prices declined in the first trading session of 2012 on Tuesday, trading below USD3.00 per million British thermal units for the second consecutive session as lingering concerns over elevated inventory levels continue to dampen sentiment on the heating fuel.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for February delivery traded at USD2.968 per million British thermal units during U.S. morning trade, slumping 0.15%.
It earlier fell by as much as 1.17% to trade at USD2.937 per million British thermal units, the lowest since September 10, 2009. On Friday, the front-month gas contract settled below USD3.00 during the winter for the first time in nearly a decade.
NYMEX trading remained closed on Monday due to the New Year's holiday.
Natural gas prices kicked off the new year on a downbeat note after industry weather group MDA Federal said that the U.S. Northeast was expected to return to milder weather after a brief cold-spell this week.
In a report published earlier the weather group said that temperatures in the northern U.S. from the Great Plains to the Northeast may be five to eight degrees Fahrenheit above normal from January 8 to January 12, dampening hopes for a pick up in heating demand.
'The forecast here remains quite warm across most of the North with only some detail differences expected since late last week,' MDA forecasters said in a report.
Prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks. Above-normal winter temperatures reduce the need for gas-fired electricity to heat homes, dampening demand for natural gas.
Concerns over record-high supply levels in the U.S. also added to selling pressure. Currently, total U.S. natural gas supplies stand at 3.548 trillion cubic feet, up 9.1% from a year earlier and 13.7% above the five-year average for this time of year.
Gas futures typically climb during the winter months, as temperatures fall and demand for heating fueled by natural gas rises. But mild weather coupled with high production levels have kept prices depressed in recent weeks.
Natural gas prices plunged 32% in 2011, as high U.S. inventories and increasing domestic natural gas production weighed on prices.
Futures dropped nearly 15% in December alone, as warmer-than-normal winter weather limited heating demand.
Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil futures for delivery in February rallied 2.8% to trade at USD102.50 a barrel, while heating oil for February delivery surged 3.75% to trade at USD3.019 per gallon.
Gold prices in India eased on Tuesday tracking a similar trend overseas, but the drop wasn't enough to bolster demand in the world's top consumer as people held off buying during year-end holidays and an inauspicious month for purchases,
The most-active February gold contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange was 0.55percent lower at 27,626 rupees per 10 grams.
The Hindu calendar from December 16 to January 14which is considered inauspicious for gold buying and starting new ventures.
International spot gold fell to a one-week low of $1,591.09earlier on Tuesday and recovered slightly to $1,596.6, down half a percent from the previous close.
